On Monday evening 6th June 2022, Boris Johnson received a scare. His presumed, vote of no confidence ‘comfortable win’ culminated in a very close shot across the bow, from his own flagship. It certainly got his attention when the result was announced by Sir Graham Brady.

But, it was a win. The media have declared Boris is ‘holed, below the waterline,’ this is a flawed assessment and here’s why.

Cast your minds back to the early months of 2020, Johnson’s personal approval ratings were approaching 70% – the Conservative Party were at over 50% – more than 20 points above the Labour Party, the next General election in 2024 was already won and no one doubted it.

Having replaced Theresa May and her lame-duck government in July 2019, he was immediately hampered by not only the lawless antics of John Bercow and the opposition parties, but also pro-EU members of his own party, not to mention the supreme courts.

Boris battled on and overcame huge opposition, to eventually overturn the Fixed Parliament Act and achieved a December General election, winning it by a massive 80 seat majority. His dissenters faded quietly away, back into the dark corners to lick their wounds. 

By March 2020, with his battle cry of ‘Get Brexit Done’ – Boris was at the peak of his popularity. Who knows what would have happened had the Covid pandemic not struck in that same month? As lockdowns were announced, the government borrowed and printed money, to fund furloughed workers, the NHS and a multitude of bottomless pits. As the Brexit withdrawal agreement was negotiated along with the free trade deal, Boris was distracted by not only daily Covid briefings, but also his own personal health and his growing new family.

By the end of that year, the withdrawal agreement and a free trade deal was struck, it wasn’t perfect, there was more work to be done, but, Johnson was able to announce he had ‘Got Brexit Done’ and in January 2021 the UK officially left the European Union. Throughout 2021, his detractors emerged from the shadows, smelling blood and, with the help of their left-leaning media friends, began accusing Boris of a botched Covid response, blaming him for the high death rates and the imperfect EU deals.

Boris’ popularity in the country was sinking, but he was still slightly ahead in the polls. Switching their attack from Johnson’s questionable Covid measures, the plotters decided to go for the man and his wife. The newly refurbished Downing Street flat was suddenly a story, curtains and wallpaper chosen by Carrie came under the spotlight. It was getting personal and dirty, but the plotters and detractors were getting frustrated, unable to land knockout blows over Covid and the Brexit deals, they decided to call into question the prime ministers character. The media and large swathes of the British public lapped it up, this was the man who had locked down the country and was interfering in their private and personal daily lives. It was inevitable and yet totally unnecessary as the public began to look at Sweden’s successful light-touch approach to Covid.

Boris was keen to return the country to normality, his vaccine roll-out was lauded as England removed all restrictions and moved on. 

The anti-Brexit, Boris-hating Tory rebels were emboldened by Johnson’s continued falling poll figures and they saw an opportunity to remove and replace him with one of their own, with the intention of easing the UK back into the EU through the back door. But they needed more ammunition to attack with. Boris, like any other prime minister, had created new enemies. Having sacked several under-performing ministers and civil servants, these disgruntled and scornful individuals were looking for mischief and they found it in Partygate.

The vote of no confidence result was a hollow victory for the plotters, they got their way, but still haven’t got their man. They’ll continue to attack and brief against their leader unless he can demand and earn their loyalty back. The only way this can be achieved is through a popularity offensive. Johnson must aim for a return to those mighty poll figures of early 2020.

He has very little time. With by-elections looming, the plotters will be out to finish off their leader should the Tories lose one or all of them.

So, in the coming days, Boris must throw around copious amounts of red meat, lashings of it, in every direction. His advisors are against the clock, they need to grab the headlines immediately. They can start by expediting the removal of the channel migrants to Rwanda tomorrow. This is an unpopular policy with his detractors, ensuring it will get huge media exposure, just what the red wall voters want to see. In fact so do the Tory grassroots. It would make an impact on the next set of polls, just prior to the impending by-elections. Priti Patel will have to get her finger out. 

Next, there will have to be a big announcement about the cost of living crisis. Significant and meaningful tax reductions across a spectrum of products, energy, fuel, income tax reductions etc. Again, this must be felt instantly in the pockets of voters. Rishi will also be required to get his finger out and spend some of the treasury’s obscene tax receipts. 

Another popular policy would be to take measures to avert the impending summer travel chaos with holiday airlines, airports and ferry operators and ports. Shortages of staff can be solved by encouraging some of the 1.2 million unemployed and under employed into those vacancies with financial incentives, such as keeping their benefits whilst earning. It can be done, even if it is a temporary fix. The travelling public will be impressed and it will add to Boris’ steadily improving ratings. All of the above measures are continuously in the headlines, for all the wrong reasons, the anti-Brexit media will have to report these policy initiatives, but in a more positive light for the government and Boris. 

Having begun to ascend in popularity, the above measures can be followed by announcing a return to the pension trip-lock, this will be welcomed by many, in particular, the older grassroots who are disillusioned with the direction of travel of the current Tory government. Further announcements on easing home ownership and a large and credible new home building scheme would be further red meat for the general public. 

By the end of the summer, Johnson and the government will be back ahead in the polls, the plotters and rebels will be relieved to see their seats becoming more secured as a general election looms. Improving NHS performance will be another high priority and popular initiative. There are many more of them and if the government gets the timing right, with the drip, drip, drip of popular policy enactments, he will have turned the tables and reassured many of his rebels and averted the very real danger of a Labour/Lib-Dem/SNP alliance and their impending re-join the EU campaign.  Johnson’s recovery would be fragile, but it can be achieved. One slip, one hesitation, one failure to exhibit momentum and enthusiasm for all, or any of the above policies will impede his ratings drive. The rebels and the opposition parties will be waiting to sabotage and capitalise. But it is Johnson’s only ace, he has no other cards to play, he must go all in!